Ameche/Abitz Memorial
League: Vegas Odds 2005
OK,
gang, here it is, the 12th annual Ameche League Vegas Odds
show. Surely you all remember the first
one, standing around the hardware store window, watching the small flickering
black and white image on the Philco in the window….waiting 5 minutes for the
freakin’ thing to warm up, taking the time to rotate the antenna on the roof to
optimize the signal with that dial that sat on top of the box…well, you get the
idea.
After
their five-star performance in Foxboro this past Monday, I don’t think there is
any question that the Indianapolis Colts are the class of the NFL. The Colts being 8-0 this year to start the
year isn’t that much of a surprise, given that as an organization they seem to
know what they are doing, they are well coached, their offense is state of the
art and their defense is solid and aggressive.
Like Brett Favre needed to finally get past the Cowboys, the Pats needed
to bury the ghost of Sugar Bear Hamilton and Ben Dreith, like the Red Sox needed
to beat the Yankees in a game and/or series that mattered, so did the Colts
need to get past the Patriots. And even
though these Patriots are not The Patriots, they are still the Patriots and the
Colts did well to finally beat them.
It
is good to see that, after having the first pick for what seemed like every
other year (and, one year, THE TOP TWO), the Colts finally got it right. The first time, as we all know, was 1983,
when John Elway was the Colts’ man.
Clearly this was the right pick.
Elway, however, had no desire to play in Colts gear (which, by the way,
featured those super-sharp silver pants with the horseshoe at each hip), saying
“I don’t want to be a jerk
but…I’m not playing in Baltimore”. (Translation: I’m just trying to piss off a certain junior at North Haven High
School.) The Colts made a trade for him
that actually worked out fairly well – they got Chris Hinton and a draft pick
that would become Ron Solt – but it was 50 cents on the dollar, at best. How many Super Bowls did Chris Hinton and
Ron Solt lead the Colts to? Who even
knows who those guys are anymore?
The
next time they got the #1 overall was after the 1989 season, when they traded
for it. After acquiring Eric Dickerson
for the 1987 season and actually winning the AFC East after losing their first
13 games in 1986, the Colts actually ran off a couple of decent seasons. And as productive and utilitarian as Jack Trudeau
was, the Colts figured they could not get to the Super Bowl without a primo
quarterback. So it was that, for the
third time in the decade, the Colts took a Quarterback first, Jeff George. And the third time was the charm. Well, sort of…..George played and, for a
year or two, actually did fairly well before alienating everyone in
Indianapolis – epitomized by his defining moment, standing on the sidelines
against the Jets all hacked off because his coach pulled him from the game.
Next
time the Colts had the #1 overall was 1992.
And they not only had the #1 overall but the #2 overall as well. Now, how can you screw THAT up? Well, the Colts did, taking Steve Entmann
and Quentin Coryatt 1 and 2 overall.
Granted, the 1992 first round was hardly the best draft class ever –
among the first round selections that year were such future Hall of Famers as David Klingler,
Tommy Vardell, Eugene Chung, Tommy Maddox (by Denver!!!), Vaughan Dunbar and Alonzo
Spellman – but you HAVE to do better than the Colts did with the 1 and 2. Sean Gilbert went #3 and he panned out
better than either of those guys.
Since
then the Colts have done much better with their #1 picks. In 1994 they took Marshall Faulk #2 overall,
and that panned out. Even though they
took Trev Alberts #5 and that didn’t work out (which led to Bill Tobin’s “Who the
hell is Mel Kiper JR” rant on ESPN) the guy that Kiper thought they should
have taken – Trent Dilfer – probably would not have made the Colts much better
than they were, and probably would have made the Colts just good enough that
they would have missed out on Peyton Manning.
So, maybe in an odd and twisted way, the Alberts pick DID work out for
the Colts. Kind of like how, when David
Lee Roth left Van Halen, VH became more of a straightforward rock band with
Sammy Hagar on vocals, and were better for it.
And
let the record show that, through all the turmoil, through the 1-15 years and
Craig Erickson and Jeff George being
a baby, and the fact that it is STILL next to impossible to find Colts gear
in this state, TONY has been there every step of the way, rooting for his boys,
being a true fan. No bandwagon hopper
is he! (More on this shortly.) For all his loyalty to his teams, in the
time that I’ve known him only twice have his boys won it all: the Mets in 1986,
and UCLA men’s basketball in 1995.
That’s it.
And
now, for the Vegas Odds, in predicted order of finish. All odds are presented based on a wager of
100. Please turn all cell phones off,
refreshments can be purchased in the lobby, and in the event of an emergency,
run like hell….
11. Benham Brawlers
To win: +10,000
To finish in the money: +5,000
NFL team most resembled: Minnesota.
Some high notes over the years, but no rings, and right now….well, the
less said the better.
Not
only have the Brawlers mirrored the Vikes over the years, but that analogy is
especially appropo this year. Aside
from Peyton Manning, right now their team is a mess. Like Daunte Culpepper went down with a devastating injury, Brian
Griese also went down with a devastating injury. The Vikes don’t have a top-shelf go to back, Walt and Bruce don’t
have a top-shelf, go-to back (Corey Dillon comes closest, and he’s more of a
cap hog than anything else at this point.)
And receivers? Between injuries
and ineffectiveness none of the Brawlers’ receivers would be anything more than
a bye-week start on most teams. In
other words, just like the Vikings.
Which
brings us to our next question: Hey, Bruce, you got any Super Bowl tickets?
If
Peyton Manning were putting up the kind of numbers he was putting up last year,
it would be a different story. The fact
that Manning was off the chain
can camouflage a lot of underachieving players. With Manning back down to earth, you need more out of your
supporting cast, which hasn’t happened to a large degree, at least not
yet. There’s still a chance, but
time is starting to run out.
As
far as the whole thing with the Vikings on the boat, yeah it wasn’t exactly the
best of all possible moves. At the same
time, I have to ask: is it REALLY that big a deal? I mean, it’s not like the Vikings generated fraudulent financial
statements and balance sheets causing stock prices to skyrocket and ultimately
bring a company to its knees, driving tens of thousands of people out of work
and depleting the college funds and retirement funds of thousands more, while
lining their own pockets with filthy lucre on Aruba and the Cayman
Islands. Right?
BTW
Bruce I would not be looking to hop off the bandwagon just yet. The Vikings have “10-6 in 2006” written all
over them. They clearly have enough
talent, they will have a new coach, and they are in a weak division there for
the taking.
10. 99 Yarders
To win: +5,000
To finish in the money: +1,000
NFL team most resembled: Miami.
A lot of early success – including two rings – but not much in recent
years.
Another
team killed by injuries, most of all by Priest Holmes. Although he played well while Bob had him,
Holmes’ season-ending injury not only hurts Bob JR’s chances for climbing back
into the race this year, but also removes the one guy who, besides Peyton
Manning, might have changed the course of the pennant race with a single trade.
Andre
Johnson’s season-long injury problems have also hurt Bob, as well as taking
another name out of the trade mix. (Sidebar: on Madden 06, Andre is listed as an “NFL Icon”, however
his team is listed as the Tennessee Titans.
Uh, can anyone say “Quality Control”?)
Still, Tiki Barber is an excellent value, Troy Williamson has good
upside and Keenan McCardell might make a good sweetner
in a trade.
As
far as the real Dolphins, I like the direction the team is going in. It seems like Nick Saban will be closer to
the Jimmy Johnson side of the equation as far as “high-profile college coaches
who try to coach in the NFL” rather than the Steve Spurrier and (shudder) Lou
Holtz side of the equation.
9. Coin Tossers
To win: +1,000
To finish in the money: +500
NFL team most resembled: New England. A model franchise, consistent year after year, and the hardware.
This
is an off-year for Craig, but he’s entitled.
Over the years no one in this league has been more consistent and more
steady than Craig. He has finished
first, second and second the past three years.
He drafts well, especially running backs (McAllister, Portis, Julius
Jones) and takes good risks on rookies (Ben Roethlisberger) He picks Free Agents especially well (Tom
Brady, Domanick Davis.) And he trades
with the best of them.
Craig’s
problem this year has simply been injuries.
His running backs, always the linchpin of his teams, have let him down
big time, between McAllister’s, Jones’s and Davis’s injuries. His receivers have been OK, although Reggie
Wayne hasn’t brought in points relative to his big salary and TJ
Houshmandzadeh (of whom I still expect big things) has been injured. Ben
Roethlisberger has also missed considerable time, but between Brady,
Plummer and now Collins, Big Ben is not as much of a factor.
There
is still enough talent here and underachieving players that I would not rule
out a climb to the lower reaches of the money.
Watch out next year, though.
Craig traded for Kerry Collins who, even though next year will be a
quarterback-rich draft still gives Craig a damn good one for $8. Plummer will
presumably also be back. Add that
to Julius Jones and (maybe, just maybe) Ryan Moats, and Craig should be back to
his winning, dominant ways before too long.
8. D&B Roadrunners
Odds to win: +900
Odds to finish in the money: +300
NFL team most resembled: Detroit.
Issues at Quarterback, high-profile but underachieving talent at
receiver, and haven’t won much.
Yet.
If
nothing else, this is the team that, as of right now, is the odds-on favorite
for 2006. To have Steven Jackson and
Larry Johnson as your top two running backs for $18 is nothing short of
fantastic. Both guys are only getting
better and would go for probably $140-150 if the draft were today (that’s both
guys.)
There
are some decent receivers here as well.
Plaxico Burress
could become the Giants’ first Pro Bowl wide receiver since 1968, when most of
you guys were in diapers watching Captain Jack, Officer Joe Bolton and the
Ranger Station on Saturday mornings and dribbling all over yourselves
(insert wisecrack about this still being relevant to TONY here).
The
disaster here is at quarterback. Yes,
Bledsoe is having a good season and the appointment for him to be fitted for a
Dunce cap has, at least for now, been suspended. However, $41 is an awful lot to pay for someone of whom Craig Morton
said, “Man, dude needs to get some wheels”
Not to mention the defining moment of this season for Bledsoe will in
all likelihood be his interception in the last minute against the Seahawks,
leading to Josh Brown dialing
long distance for the win. I’m sure
that Patriots fans would have taken that in stride, pretty much. Well, either that or started chanting “We
Want Cassell!” while looking for Bledsoe’s head on a stick.
The
rest of his QBs are a mess. When Kyle “Reverse
Al Bundy but with five interceptions” Orton is your no-brainer second QB,
you have issues. When Joey Harrington
is at the ready as your bye-week guy, you have issues. When you have JP Losman….well, that’s just a
cry for help. Why, David Carr took one
look at the absolute mess Dave and Brandon’s quarterbacks were and was heard to
say, “Shit, even getting knocked down 38 times a game I would be better than
these stiffs!”
This
year is so tight, though, that even with all the problems Dave has he can still
climb into the race. Stranger things have happened.
7. PGia Panthers
Odds to win: +750
Odds to finish in the money: +250
NFL Team most resembled: Tennessee.
A really good look at it some years back, and some decent and sustained
success, but in the middle of a rebuilding right now.
Another
reason that trades in football are totally unpredictable: this offseason PGia
traded Marc Bulger to TONY and Phil for Carson Palmer and
Cracker Barrel Chad. The logic was easy
to follow: quarterbacks were at a premium in this year’s draft, so to get two
decent ones for a really good one was a good way to go. Unfortunately, Chad didn’t keep up his end
of the deal, going on the IR the first month and proving that, in at least one
way he was following in the footsteps of Broadway Joe. Unfortunately, that way was chronic injuries
and being more sizzle than steak.
Fortunately,
Carson Palmer has turned out to be a stud and a revelation. For a franchise which has had a number of
great quarterbacks pass through – Greg Cook, Virgil Carter, Ken Anderson and of
course Boomer Esiason – Carson Palmer has a chance to be the best out of all of
them. He has a good head, his teammates
love him, he has weapons and he has great coaching. Plus, in the NFL, cold-weather teams that have a high-octane and
balanced offense are damn hard to beat.
As much as anything, this is what made the Bills teams so dominant in
the early 90s. Simply put: if you can
run that kind of offense in the bitter cold,
you can run it anywhere.
Pete’s
downfall this year is running backs.
Simply put, no one is putting up any kind of numbers other than Brian
Westbrook. When you look at Pete’s
lineup, you can’t say he didn’t draft well – Jamal Lewis was as good a bet as
anyone out there, Marshall Faulk has done it before, and guys like Frank Gore
and Greg Jones sold themselves – but none of it worked out. {Sidebar: on ESPN.com, one of Sports Guy
Bill Simmons’s readers pointed out that, while Jamal Lewis was in jail, he
might have been subjected to a relatively poor diet and limited conditioning
that would adversely affect him this season, and it looks like it has come to
pass. Yes, I told Pete about this
already.)
There’s
always a chance that one of these guys pans out, and a chance that one of his
cheap receivers may go off the chain.
Maybe the win is out of the question, but there’s hope for some success
and a possible money finish here.
6. Anthonyapolis Colts
Odds to win: +500
Odds to finish in the money: +190
NFL Team most resembled: Chicago. In the past 40 years, a single season for the ages; and some scattered successes here and there, but other than that, a whole lot of nuttin’.
First
of all, let’s start out by singing TONY’s praises in these leagues. No one – and I mean, NO ONE – has been as
solid, for as long, and is as good putting together winning teams in a number
of different leagues. He drafts well,
he trades, he knows how to work the standings.
He makes trades that help himself, and rarely are these trades where the
mark says “Why the hell would I do that?”
If you are good this long it’s not just luck.
At
the same time, football has long been exposed as TONY’s Achilles heel, his
Kryptonite, Ava Gardner to his Frank Sinatra.
Although he has won a ring (albeit with the capable and steady Phil Ryan
at the controls) he has not been able to make the splash that he’s hoped. Some of this is because that, unlike our
other leagues, this isn’t a big trading league, and never has been. Another part of it is that this league,
unlike most of our other league, is straight points as opposed to rotisserie
style, which is subject to myriad manipulations.
That’s
only part of it though. Next to me in
the American League, no one has been cluster-effed with as much bad luck in ANY
of these leagues as much as TONY.
Always has been that way.
Remember when Vinny Greenhead snapped his Achilles in Game 1 of the 1999
season? He was TONY’s guy, after he
traded half his team to get him. Then
he made a bunch of trades before the 2000 season for a number of players
(including Emmitt Smith) after which when they backfired, he came thisclose to
dropping out, only staying on as a limited partner with Phil Ryan.
This
year, however, may have been the worst of all.
No one in any of these leagues has lost two-thirds of their Opening Day
salary to injuries before half the season went by. And even before Daunte Culpepper and Ahman Green went out, they
hadn’t been anything special.
Compounding the issue was the fact that Phil and TONY went 60 on Antowain
“AARP” Smith, and while he has done fairly well for the boys it has so far prevented
them from getting one of the better pool QBs left.
Even
with all of this, it is TONY and Phil’s trades, and the back half of their
draft, that is now giving them a good look at the money. The Menudo LaMont Jordan trade was nothing
short of a heist. Getting Dilfer and
Charlie Frye for a total of $11 was a good move, especially when you consider
that players that went for a lot more have done a lot less
(AHEMjoeyharrington!
AHCHOOmichaelvick!) Keyshawn
Johnson has delivered the goods for 2 bucks, and guys like Chris Henry and
Antwaan Randle El are good chip in/upside guys. Not least of all, when you have cheapies like Rudi Johnson on
your roster, it allows you to make a couple of big mistakes and get away with
it.
Either
way it says a lot about Phil and TONY’s management skills that they lost what
they have lost this year and are still in this.
5. Nippers
Odds to Win: +180
Odds to Finish in the Money: Even
NFL Team most resembled: Pittsburgh. One of the best franchises, year in and year out and has the rings to prove it.
The
way this year has gone, with it being tight, I would say anyone from this point
on has at least an outside shot to win it all.
A
strong argument can be made that Bob SR, of all the owners, has had the most
success in this league. Just ask the
guy who went 27 for this
jamoke) He doesn’t trade a lot but
drafts well and makes good moves with free agents.
Bob
goes three deep at quarterback, with Eli Manning, Matt Hasselbeck and Jake
Delhomme. Kurt Warner was a good gamble
but just didn’t work out. At running
back the pick of Carnell Williams was an excellent get. Even though he’s been hurt he’s The Man in
that offense and will easily bring in the 36 dollars. In the meantime, Michael Pittman fills in the cracks. Mike Anderson is getting some good work in
Denver and Thomas
Jones, at least for now, is working out good in Chicago. His receiving corps, already solid with
Hines Ward and Kevin Curtis, will also be much better when Randy Moss comes
back.
You
wonder about the running game – can Carnell stay healthy, can Kevan Barlow
squeeze out some production for a team clearly in transition. Barring a trade a ring may be a reach but
it’s certainly not out of the question.
The horses are here.
4. Bushwackers
Odds to win: +175
Odds to finish in the money: Even
NFL Team most resembled: New York Jets. A big splash and a ring early on but not too much in the years that followed. Through solid management the team has been competitive in recent years and has had a good look at it but has been thwarted by injuries and bad luck.
As
you all remember Greg started last year as the team to beat. He had the running game, the passing game,
and all the stars. Unfortunately after
that his team turned into an E! “True Hollywood Story,” with TO breaking his
leg, Priest Holmes going on IR and the rest of his team unable to finish. It was like watching the Philadelphia Eagles
in 1994 start the season 7-2 and then lose their last seven to miss the playoffs. Except, fortunately for us, Richie Kotite is
nowhere to be found. Right, Greg? Uh….that IS right, Greg isn’t it?
Trent
Green has underachieved and not earned his $71 but has put up somewhat decent
numbers. There were some good gets at
running back, ESPECIALLY Ronnie Brown, who is a fantasy stud in the making
(alas, not this year). Chad Johnson is
worth the $34 and Larry Fitzgerald has come into his own. Jeremy Shockey was also an excellent get at
TE and has an excellent shot at the Value Team this year.
Which
brings us to T.O. (or, as Jim Rome calls him, Two), everyone’s best friend. And
for what seems to be an annual tradition, a mini-essay about Two in the Vegas
Odds.
The
year 2005 is, and ever shall be, the Year of Two, for all the wrong reasons –
doing situps in his driveway, yelling at the coaches, playing in the Super Bowl
with a broken stick not quite 100% healed, throwing Donovan McNabb under the
bus. Everything, that is, except having
Kim Cattrall (in character as Samantha from Sex and the City) drop a towel and
jump into his arms, naked. (and you
know she would do it. BTW yes, I know
the show isn’t on anymore, but if the criminally underappreciated Adam West can
still make appearances as Batman, and Haywood Nelson can still make appearances
as Dwayne from “What’s Happening!!”, why the hell not?)
The
thing I think that we all have to keep in mind here, is that Philadelphia is
where Two WANTED to go. The Eagles
wanted him – they wanted his swagger, they wanted his talent, they wanted an
ace receiver for Donovan McNabb. And
Two wanted the Eagles for a shot at a ring and added visibility and green
stuff. He wanted it so bad, in fact,
that after his agent MISSED the filing deadline (which is really, really,
REALLY bad and, at most companies, grounds for dismissal) he filed a case in
arbitration to try to get away with it anyway, so as to avoid going to
Baltimore (to whom SF had executed a tentative trade.) Amazingly, it appeared that TO and the
Players’ union would have won in front of the arbitrator, so SF cut its losses
and traded him to the Eagles, with Baltimore getting the equivalent of
Samsonite luggage and Jolly Time popcorn for not appearing on stage (a fifth
round draft pick.)
Some
people say this is the end of the Eagles as we know it. That it’s back to the days of Marion
Campbell and Richie Kotite. This is
bullshit. Yeah, this is a black
eye. Yes, this is a sad chapter in
Eagles history and I’m sure Chuck Bednarik is probably pounding holes in his
wall as I’m writing this. Yeah, this
season is starting to look like a lost season for the Eagles and their window
is closing. But the organization came
through this just fine. They didn’t
back down to Two. Andy Reid, and
Donovan McNabb and Joe Banner, held to their principles and didn’t back
down. The team grew together. With Brian Westbrook signed to a nice new
five-year deal, the Eagles demonstrated with deeds what will be rewarded. The Eagles aren’t finished yet, and they’ll
be a Super Bowl contender again soon.
Actually,
what the Eagles went through with Two, is parallel to what I went through in
1991 with the “Thing from Hell.” Some
of you guys were there back then and know about this already. For the rest of you: despite being deathly
ill from eating Little Caesars’ pizza the night before, I hooked up with this
girl at Boppers after the H&R Block banquet. My brother was there, TONY was there, I was hooking up, it was
good times. (Sidebar: legend has it
TONY bought her a drink before I got there, giving “getting lucky” a whole new
meaning. And yet I digress.) At the time, she was definitely quite a bit
of alright and interested in me.
Usually a good combination.
Anyway, not long after that we hooked up, and the first month and a half
went swimmingly, despite a few quirks.
Then, on Memorial Day weekend, I saw the wheels starting to come
off. She started to get clingy, and she
would get into these funks for no reason.
Despite this, I stuck around, figuring it would blow over. Unfortunately, it got worse. And this doesn’t even get into her father
(stubborn, loud, non-listening yeller, enough said. R. Lee
Ermey in “Full Metal Jacket”, by comparison, was a sweetheart.)
For
all these parallels, there is one key difference. When the Eagles had had enough with their Thing from Hell, they
cut ties immediately. Me, I waited
seven months. Seven months! Which is better than waiting 20 years, I
guess, but still, about six months and 30 days too long. And she didn’t help me get to the precipice
of any Super Bowls, I’ll tell you that.
I quickly realized, however, why I got sick on Little Caesars pizza the
night before: it was destiny, and fate, trying to keep me from going to Boppers
that night. Kind of like Baltimore was
trying to keep Philadelpha from getting Two.
Or, for that matter, TONY buying the Thing from Hell a drink before I
got there. Some friend I am!
In
retrospect, maybe the guy of suspect character the Eagles should have gotten
was Corey Dillon. Like Two, Dillon
would have given the Eagles something they desperately needed (a power running
game). Unlike Two, however, Dillon was
a joy last year in New England – almost too much of a joy. Even this year, with the Pats being somewhat
less than successful, he has not been a distraction and has blended in, quite
nicely, with the rest of the team. The
icing? Without looking on the Internet,
tell me who Corey Dillon’s agent is.
And
besides, we all know you win the Super Bowl on the ground, not in the air, the
1981 San Francisco 49ers notwithstanding.
Oh
well. I guess all that is missing is
Two going on ESPNEWS making a speech saying that we “won’t have Terrell Owens to
kick around anymore.”
3. Tom’s Turkeys
Odds to Win: +150
Odds to Finish in the Money: -110
NFL Team most resembled: Denver.
A proud history and a pair of well-earned rings. He hasn’t won it all in a while but is a
solid player, and he’s right in the thick of it again.
A
lot of times when I think of these leagues, I think of “The Hustler” or “The
Color of Money” (but not, “The Hustler of Money,” the short film that was on
SNL where Ben Stiller did a wicked Tom Cruise imitation and John Mahoney did
the Paul Newman character. Mahoney: “You’re a flake”. Stiller: “I’m a flake!”
Mahoney: “Stop saying what I’m saying” Stiller: “Stop sayin’ what you’re
sayin’!” Freakin’ brillant.)
I
think of this because we all have our characters, our approach, how we go about
our business. For some of us, the act
is talking up your guys and pretending that you’re taking on all the risk. (Hmmm, who might THAT be.) Some of us are as subtle as sledgehammers,
some make Dr. Mel (who I truly believe is perhaps the nicest man on the planet)
look like Scrooge, some wait until approached and then become the aggressors. And, for some of us, it’s not doing anything
– in other words, as Bridget Fonda said to Cameron Scott in “Singles”: “I think
that, a, having no act, b, IS your act.”
And
then there’s Tom. During these drafts
he sits there with his briefcase and notes and whenever a player comes up: “Oh,
who’s he? Oh, OK, Seven dollars.” But, you know what, it WORKS! Crazy like a fox, I think they call it. He’s got two rings in this league (including
1994, when none of us knew what the hell we were doing, i.e., the jamoke who
bid 27 for this future Hall of Famer), a ring in the American League (the
hardest of all the leagues) and he’s had solid finishes and acquitted himself
very, very well. Not only that, but
he’s boys with my cousin Lou (who was also my Confirmation sponsor in
1980). Can’t beat that.
Nice
team this year. Donovan McNabb is
excellent, Two or no Two. Edgerrin
James is having an excellent year, probably the best year so far relative to
his position by any Colt. Even though
he is banged up now, Willie Parker may have been the steal of the draft (how
did we all miss that?) and Clinton Portis is very good. At receiver, Steve Smith is on pace to have
a record-breaking season, getting the catches and points that Mushmouth left
behind in Chicago and Santana Moss is fantastic, giving Tom not only a Redskin
but a guy who puts up points. The
secret ingredient this year is the defense, the Giants have been one of the
best.
One
downfall is second quarterback. Anthony
Wright is terrible, and Gus Frerotte should not be anything more than a
bye-week guy at this point in his career, on that team. There are also some questions about depth at
wide receiver, but those can be addressed.
Overall
a pretty good team, one that should finish in the money comfortably and has a
shot for the win.
2. Peteriot Nation
Odds to Win: +165
Odds to finish in the money: -125
NFL Team most resembled: Tampa Bay.
Embarassing beginnings, including the equivalent of a winless season
(1996). From these beginnings, and
despite some occasional high profile missteps, the franchise has evolved into
one of the steadiest franchises with a number of high finishes and a ring.
Does
anyone remember one of the most notorious bidding wars ever in this
league? It was 1995, our second year of
business. The player on the board was
Craig Erickson, newly acquired quarterback by the Indianapolis Colts. After a very good year for the Tampa Bay
Buccaneers, big things were projected for Erickson in Indy as the Bucs were set
to go with Trent Dilfer. Anyway, the
bidding got to 17, with TONY having the bid.
Going once, going twice….
Then,
in the back of the room: “TWENTY!!!” It
was the Artist
Not Yet Known as Black Pete, injecting himself in the bidding. The bidding went up. 21, 22, 23, 24….all the way up to 32, after
which TONY threw his papers up in the air, said, “He’s yours”, and so he was.
What
did Erickson do? His first game that
season against the pitiful Bengals, he stunk it up in the first half and was
pulled for Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh
nearly led the Colts to victory before losing 24-21. His second start that season, was against the pitiful Jets. Again, Erickson stunk it up in the first
half, and again he was pulled for Jim Harbaugh, who led the Colts to a dramatic
27-24 win. This time, the benching was
permanent, with Harbaugh going the rest of the way for the Colts. Consequently, due to that and a number of
other questionable judgement calls, Pete eventually dropped to last place,
where he would spend much of the next season as well.
Pete
learned from these pastings and beatings, however, and applied the lessons
learned to eventually have his greatest successes in these leagues to
date. We see this again this year
despite a number of decisions this year that appear suspect – keeping Brandon
Stokley ahead of TJ Houshmandzadeh, drafting Ashley Lelie and Darrell
Jackson instead of someone like Randy Moss, starting David Carr ahead of Kerry
Collins in Week 1, the list goes on.
However,
Pete did draft Ladainian Tomlinson, who has been the biggest stud in this
league this year, so far. He has so far
come as close as anyone to being this year’s Peyton Manning. Willis McGahee has been very good, and Drew
Brees as good as he was last year. Joey
Galloway has been a very solid receiver (even though Pete missed out on a big
week from him as well), and Joe Jurivicius was a nifty pool pickup. However, Ashley Lelie has, so far,
underachieved, Mike Vanderjagt isn’t all that and Tony Gonzalez and the
Patriots D have been major disappointments (even though PGar going 6 for the
Pats defense during the draft was the most popular decision of the night. Maybe this was why!)
The
X factor is Pete’s trade with Craig. In
two separate deals he got Tom Brady, Cedric Benson and Dominack Davis for Kerry
Collins, TJ Duckett and Ryan Moats.
Obviously the deal is better for Pete this year – especially the
acquisition of Tom Brady - but Benson has accomplished relatively little and
Dominack the Italian Christmas Donkey has been banged up all year playing on an
underachieving franchise. If, however,
those guys step it up and LT remains LT and Pete remains free of injuries, he
might have the best shot to knock Derek off.
Hardly a sure thing, but not implausible.
Oh
and by the way, TONY, two follow-ups from this past Monday night:
1. D.A. Dolphins
Odds to Win: Even
Odds to Finish in the Money: -200
NFL Team Most Resembled: Carolina. A team that maybe hasn’t been in the race that much, but that has had enjoyed some high points, and right now looks to have as good a shot as anyone to win this year.
As
1995-96 was the Year of Bob JR (with his “Chapin Slam”), 1999 was the Year of
Todd, 2000 was Tom’s moment in the sun, and 2001-02 will forever be known as
the era Joe McCabe turned into the National League Marcellus Wallace, 2005
seems destined to be known as the Year Of Freakin’ Derek. Already he’s got a win in the National
League where he lapped the field a couple of times, punching his ticket at the
big boy’s table and grabbing a plate.
The
two guys who are clearly driving the bus here are Shaun Alexander and Antonio
Gates. Next to LT, Shaun Alexander is
THE stud in this league, maybe the best guy overall to have. Even though he’s in his last year, he’s
solid, he’s cap friendly and one of the few players you can reasonably rely
upon for 20 points a week. Fantasy stud
number one-A is Antonio Gates. How much
of a stud is this guy? The record for
tight ends in this league is 140, which Gates set last year. He’s got 90 through Week 9 – and keep in
mind that he MISSED Week 1!!!
Yikes! At a position where
you’re happy getting 40-50 points all year, this is borderline Gretzky-esque.
Many
of Derek’s other starters are also very good.
Warrick Dunn is an injury risk like Brian Westbrook, but the Falcons
love him, and he is very good in that offense.
Torry Holt is an elite receiver, and Curtis Martin is an excellent #3
back. Aaron Brooks is scary, but he does seem
to deliver the goods to an extent, and having the Tennessee quarterback (especially
Billy Volek) is an excellent thing to have, even though Steve McNair is banged
up. Adam Vinatieri is having an average
season but he’s reliable and hopefully will shine now that the Pats are through
the hell part of their schedule. Ernest
Wilford also looks like a good get.
Oddly
enough the best thing that could happen to Derek might just be Billy Volek
taking over in Tennessee. As Greg could
tell you, last year he stayed in it as long as he did primarily because Volek
was just so good in a number of games filling in for McNair (who in this league
has never really been an elite fantasy quarterback). With Norm Chow
running that offense, you know it’s a matter of time before Tennessee’s offense
becomes an especially rich breeding ground for fantasy studs.
This has a chance to be a special season for Derek. It’s one thing to have two horses like Alexander and Gates. It’s another thing to surround them with
quality players who produce, which he’s done.
Whether this will be a team for the ages remains to be seen; but right
now it’s looking like it’ll be the Team for 2005 and that’s plenty good
enough.
Now,
if Derek would invest some of his winnings in
a plane ticket to come to Wallingford next September 5th, and
participate in the draft in person, we’ll be all set.